Crypto Braces for Fed Week

What CPI and the October 28 Decision Mean for Bitcoin, Solana and XRP

Bitcoin was trading around $83,407.38 USD at 1pm Perth time on October 13

Crypto heads into a data-heavy stretch. The September US inflation report lands on Wednesday, October 14, the Fed enters its quiet period on Saturday, October 17, and the rate decision follows on October 28. For a market that now moves in step with interest-rate expectations, that is a lot to digest in two weeks.

The market is not expecting action this month. Prediction markets in early October put the chance of a Fed hike on October 28 at roughly 17%, but they price about a 73% chance of a hike in December and around 78% for at least one more hike in 2026. In other words, the debate is about the path of rates, and CPI is the next big clue.

What to watch

1. CPI is the swing factor. Traders reckon a hot core reading could put an October hike back on the table. A softer print would let the meeting pass quietly and shift focus to December.
2. Rates now hit crypto directly. Analysts note that Bitcoin’s link to rate-sensitive assets is stronger than it has ever been, so repricing of Fed expectations flows straight into crypto.
3. ETF money is returning. US spot Bitcoin ETFs took in about $2.4 billion in a late-September week, their best since October 2025. Solana and XRP funds each entered September holding roughly $1.5 billion.
4. October has a good track record. Bitcoin has finished October higher in 10 of the last 13 years, with an average gain of almost 20%. Past patterns guarantee nothing, but traders are watching.
5. Regulation is stuck for now. The CLARITY Act failed 49–50 in the Senate on September 15. The SEC’s proposed Regulation Crypto Assets is open for public comment until October 20 and is the main regulatory track.
6. Altcoin catalysts. Solana has roughly doubled from its June low, while XRP still sits about 58% below its peak with an upgrade event in view.

Where that leaves Bitcoin: as of September it was still around 37% below its October 2025 record of about $126,200, having rebuilt much of its summer losses. A rate scare could test that recovery, while a calm CPI could extend it.

What do you think? Does the Fed decide the next leg for crypto, or are ETF flows now the bigger driver? Let us know in the comments.

Not financial advice. Crypto is volatile and you can lose money. Do your own research.