AUD/USD Ahead of US CPI: Can the 0.69 Support Hold?

The Australian dollar had a soft September, and the US inflation report on Wednesday, October 14 could decide whether it steadies or slides further. With the Fed’s October 28 meeting close behind, AUD/USD is a pair where US rate expectations are doing most of the work.

Analysts note the pair is still moving in a broad range, with the 0.69 area standing out as major support on the longer-term charts. That level is where a rebound is most likely to be tested. For context, AUD/USD climbed from about 0.61 to nearly 0.73 in the first half of 2026 before giving back much of that gain.

What to watch

1. US CPI, October 14. A hot reading would support the US dollar and could pressure the Aussie toward support. A cooler one would take some heat out of the hike story.
2. The Fed path. Prediction markets give only about a 17% chance of a hike on October 28 but roughly 73% for December. The balance between those two shapes the dollar.
3. US yields. Rising US interest rates have been a main reason for the Aussie’s September weakness, according to recent analyst commentary.
4. Support near 0.69. A hold keeps the range intact and the rebound case alive. A clean break would change the picture.
5. Outside risks. Middle East headlines and China data can move risk-sensitive currencies like the Aussie quickly.

Bottom line: the next two weeks are about US data and the Fed, with 0.69 as the level traders are watching. Whichever way CPI lands, expect volatility around the release.

Where do you see AUD/USD going into the Fed meeting? Tell us below.

Not financial advice. Forex trading carries a high level of risk. Do your own research.